Large-scale calibration and simulation of COVID-19 epidemiologic scenarios to support healthcare planning.

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided stiff challenges for planning and resourcing in health services in the UK and worldwide. Epidemiological models can provide simulations of how infectious disease might progress in a population given certain parameters. We adapted an agent-based model of COVID-19 to inform planning and decision-making within a healthcare setting, and created a software framework that automates processes for calibrating the model parameters to health data and allows the model to be run at national population scale on National Health Service (NHS) infrastructure. We developed a method for calibrating the model to three daily data streams (hospital admissions, intensive care occupancy, and deaths), and demonstrate that on cross-validation the model fits acceptably to unseen data streams including official estimates of COVID-19 incidence. Once calibrated, we use the model to simulate future scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 in England and show that the simulations provide useful projections of future COVID-19 clinical demand. These simulations were used to support operational planning in the NHS in England, and we present the example of the use of these simulations in projecting future clinical demand during the rollout of the national COVID-19 vaccination programme. Being able to investigate uncertainty and test sensitivities was particularly important to the operational planning team. This epidemiological model operates within an ecosystem of data technologies, drawing on a range of NHS, government and academic data sources, and provides results to strategists, planners and downstream data systems. We discuss the data resources that enabled this work and the data challenges that were faced.

Junior led digital innovation: the use of attend anywhere video consultation at North Staffordshire combined healthcare NHS Trust

For some time, despite video consultation software being available to utilise at North Staffordshire Combined Healthcare NHS Trust (NSCHT), its widespread use had not been achieved. The reasons for this were unclear as both staff and service users had previously indicated interest. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting lockdown, the trust needed to adapt quickly in order to maintain a high standard of care, whilst significantly reducing face to face appointments. A higher trainee and consultant in psychiatry, along with the Innovation Collaborative and research team, worked to promote and establish the use of Attend Anywhere video consultation software throughout the organisation.A pilot study was undertaken which demonstrated a 2834% increase in the rate of video consultation across all directorates. Staff reported that the platform was effective for: assessments;delivering psychological therapy;diagnostic appointments;and for service users anxious, isolating or shielding. It was less effective for physical observation and group work. 71% of service users were satisfied/very satisfied and 75% would have more consultations using this method, despite 66% reporting problems such as poor sound. Benefits included;reduced travel time;less time off work;no stress relating to parking/attending on time;and feeling they had the sole attention of staff.An interim report has been produced for dissemination. The next stage is to undertake focus groups with staff and service users to gain a greater understanding of how the use of video consultation software can be embedded, where appropriate, across the organisation.